Three implementation pathways are outlined for California high-speed rail, with a near-term option focused on a Central Valley Spine between Merced and Bakersfield costing $36.75 billion and potentially starting service by 2032. Construction activity continues in the Central Valley, including completion of the Avenue 88 Grade Separation in Tulare County. Projected ridership for initial service is 1.6 to 2.2 million annual trips, yielding roughly $40–$55 million in revenue while operating costs are estimated above $120 million per year. Two more expansive scenarios would extend service toward the Bay Area via Gilroy and Caltrain links and require legislative approval.
"I see a future-by 2038 to 2039-when operations are already connecting the Central Valley to population centers and innovation hubs, offering new career opportunities, economic mobility, affordable housing, and a cleaner environment," wrote CHSRA Ian Choudri in a statement last week. "A system that is efficient, sustainable, and equitable. A system that connects us to each other and to the world around us."
"The first option would cost $36.75 billion and would see the construction of the "Central Valley Spine," connecting Merced to Bakersfield. This project has been approved by the legislature, but the update says that service could begin as soon as 2032."
"Once service is running, the update estimates that there would be 1.6 million to 2.2 million trips per year which would create roughly $40 million to $55 million in revenue annually. Unfortunately, the cost of running service is estimated to be over $120 million per year."
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