Did California finish 2025 with booming confidence?

"By one measure, Californians got a surprising boost of optimism at the year's end. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for the state took its largest one-month jump on record for December. This yardstick of shopper psyche, created by polls that run to mid -month, date to 2007. My trusty spreadsheet found the California index jumped 48% between November and December, putting the index at a five-year high."

"This jump passed the old record upswing of 47% in April 2009, when the economy was first emerging from the depths of the Great Recession. Curiously, December's record surge followed a year-long decline to November. The 24% confidence drop following Donald Trump's election to his second term put the index at its second-lowest point in five years. While these California curves were happening, nationwide confidence slipped modestly in December - only 4% - putting the U.S. index at an eight-month low. Clearly, an eye-catching divide."

"Conference Board economist Dana Peterson noted these state indexes have a history of statistical jumpiness. My spreadsheet used standard deviation, a geeky measurement, to learn that California's confidence index is 53% more volatile than the national benchmark. Only Texas was less jumpy, 38% above the nation. Ohio was jumpiest at 134% above the U.S. norm. Peterson noted that tracking six months of indexes can smooth out the hiccups to show clearer patterns."

California's Conference Board monthly consumer confidence index recorded its largest one-month jump on record in December, rising 48% from November to a five-year high. The December surge surpassed the prior record 47% upswing in April 2009 as the economy emerged from the Great Recession. The jump followed a year-long decline that left the index 24% lower after Donald Trump's election to a second term. Nationwide consumer confidence slipped about 4% in December to an eight-month low, creating a notable divergence. Among eight tracked states, Texas rose 11%, while Pennsylvania, Florida, New York and Michigan posted double-digit declines. State indexes show higher volatility than the national benchmark.

Read at The Mercury News