Did California finish 2025 with booming confidence?

"By one measure, Californians got a surprising boost of optimism at the year's end. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for the state took its largest one-month jump on record for December. This yardstick of shopper psyche, created by polls that run to mid-month, date to 2007. My trusty spreadsheet found the California index jumped 48% between November and December, putting the index at a five-year high."

"This jump passed the old record upswing of 47% in April 2009, when the economy was first emerging from the depths of the Great Recession. Curiously, December's record surge followed a year-long decline to November. The 24% confidence drop following Donald Trump's election to his second term put the index at its second-lowest point in five years. While these California curves were happening, nationwide confidence slipped modestly in December only 4% putting the U.S. index at an eight-month low."

"Month-to-month gyrations are rarely insightful, but giant swings are hard to miss. Conference Board economist Dana Peterson noted these state indexes have a history of statistical jumpiness. My spreadsheet used standard deviation, a geeky measurement, to learn that California's confidence index is 53% more volatile than the national benchmark. Only Texas was less jumpy, 38% above the nation. Ohio was jumpiest at 134% above the U.S. norm. Peterson noted that tracking six months of indexes can smooth out the hiccups to show clearer patterns."

The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for California jumped 48% between November and December, marking the largest one-month increase on record and reaching a five-year high. The surge exceeded the prior record 47% upswing in April 2009. The December surge followed a year-long decline that included a 24% drop after Donald Trump's reelection, which left the index near its five-year low in November. National consumer confidence fell 4% in December to an eight-month low. State results varied widely, with Texas up 11% while Pennsylvania, Florida, New York and Michigan posted sizable declines. California's index is notably more volatile than the national benchmark; smoothing over six months produced a more modest year-end increase.

Read at www.ocregister.com