"Proposition 50, the California-slaps-back initiative, is cruising to a comfortable victory on Nov. 4, a slam dunk for Gov. Gavin Newsom and efforts to get even with Texas. Or not. It's actually a highly competitive contest between those wanting to offset the GOP's shameless power grab and opponents of Democrats' retaliatory gerrymander - with many voters valuing California's independent redistricting commission and still making up their minds. Obviously, both things can't be true, so which is it?"
"That depends on which of the polls you choose to believe. Political junkies, and the news outlets that service their needs, abhor a vacuum. So there's no lack of soundings that purport to show just where Californians' heads are at a mere six weeks before election day - which, in truth, is not all that certain. Newsom's pollster issued results showing Prop. 50 winning overwhelming approval."
Proposition 50 is framed both as a likely landslide for gubernatorial interests and as a tight race over retaliatory gerrymandering versus support for the independent redistricting commission. Different surveys produce divergent outcomes: a Newsom-affiliated poll shows overwhelming approval, a UC Berkeley/L.A. Times survey finds support below 50 percent, and other polls show a solid lead. Declining telephone response rates, choices in methodology, and pollster motivations complicate interpretation of results. Scott Keeter of Pew stresses that the way a poll is conducted determines its credibility. Many routine horse-race polls are unreliable and warrant skepticism.
Read at Los Angeles Times
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