After a BIG Run, Can CSX Climb Another 15% to BofA's $46 Price Target?

"Bank of America trimmed its target from $48 to $46 after acknowledging that Q1-to-date carloads are running up just 1.9% year-over-year, below the firm's prior estimate of 4.4%. BofA now models full-year carload growth of 2.3% and has trimmed its Q1 and full-year 2026 EPS estimates by 5% and 2%, to $0.38 and $1.80, respectively."

"Intermodal revenue rose 7% in Q4 2025 on 5% volume growth, and the completion of the Howard Street Tunnel upgrade opens double-stack capability from the West Coast through Baltimore. The Howard Street Tunnel upgrade opens double-stack capability from the West Coast through Baltimore, a structural infrastructure advantage for freight share gains."

"Management guided for 200 to 300 basis points of year-over-year operating margin expansion in 2026 through workforce optimization and cost discipline, with roughly $150 million in non-recurring 2025 charges that won't repeat. Higher margins translate to more profitability."

CSX Corporation has outperformed the railroad sector with a 34% gain over the trailing twelve months, currently trading at $39.62 after pulling back from its 52-week high of $43.35. Bank of America recently revised its price target to $46 with a Buy rating, significantly above Wall Street's consensus of $40.19. The revision came after acknowledging Q1 carload growth of 1.9% year-over-year, below prior estimates of 4.4%, prompting BofA to trim full-year carload growth expectations to 2.3% and reduce 2026 EPS estimates by 2-5%. Despite these adjustments, BofA maintains its constructive stance based on solid operating performance, intermodal momentum, and early signs of industrial economic recovery. Key growth drivers include intermodal revenue expansion and the Howard Street Tunnel upgrade enabling double-stack capability from the West Coast through Baltimore.

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