"Call it six months and nine months and even a year, it's pretty positive. Consumers have money. There's still jobs, even though it's weakened a little bit. There's a lot of stimulus coming from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Deregulation is a plus in general, not just for banks, but banks will be able to redeploy capital."
"However, the macro "backdrop" must also be considered, he added, and these work on different timelines: "Geopolitical is an enormous amount of risk ... It's just a big amount of risk that may or may not be determining the fate of the economy." He continued: "The deficits in the United States and around the world are quite large. We don't know when that's going to bite.""
JPMorgan reported Q4 2025 revenue of $45.8 billion and assets under management of $4.8 trillion, an 18% year-over-year increase. Shares declined after the earnings call. Management described a mixed economic outlook: labor markets have softened but conditions do not appear to be worsening; consumers remain resilient and businesses generally remain healthy. Management expressed optimism about artificial intelligence and noted short-term prospects (six to twelve months) look positive, citing consumer cash, employment, stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill, and deregulation enabling capital redeployment. Management warned that geopolitical risk is substantial and that large government deficits and global debt could eventually damage the economy.
Read at Fortune
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