Why Smart Money Is Piling Into COP After Earnings Miss: The Marathon Deal Just Changed Everything
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Why Smart Money Is Piling Into COP After Earnings Miss: The Marathon Deal Just Changed Everything
"ConocoPhillips reported disappointing fourth-quarter results on February 5, 2026, missing both earnings and revenue estimates as lower oil prices overshadowed production gains from the Marathon Oil acquisition. The Houston-based energy producer posted adjusted EPS of $1.02, falling short of the $1.12 consensus estimate by 9%. Revenue of $14.19 billion also missed expectations of $14.34 billion. Net income tumbled to $1.44 billion from $2.30 billion in the year-ago quarter, a 37.3% decline driven primarily by weaker commodity prices."
"Production reached 2,320 MBOED, up 137 MBOED year-over-year, thanks to the Marathon acquisition, though underlying production declined 2.6% when adjusted for the merger impact. CEO Ryan Lance highlighted operational achievements despite the earnings miss, stating: "We outperformed our initial production, capital and cost guidance; successfully integrated Marathon Oil, doubling our synergy capture." The company achieved over $1 billion in run-rate synergies from the Marathon deal, double the initial target."
ConocoPhillips posted adjusted EPS of $1.02 and revenue of $14.19 billion for the fourth quarter, missing consensus estimates. Net income declined to $1.44 billion from $2.30 billion year-over-year, driven by weaker commodity prices as realized price per barrel of oil equivalent fell 19% to $42.46 and WTI averaged $61.60 per barrel. Production was 2,320 MBOED, up 137 MBOED year-over-year but down 2.6% on an adjusted basis. Marathon integration delivered over $1 billion in run-rate synergies, doubling targets. The company guides 2026 production of 2.33–2.36 MMBOED, plans about $12 billion in capex, expects cost reductions and incremental free cash flow through 2029, declared a $0.84 quarterly dividend, and returned $9.0 billion to shareholders in 2025.
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