What Smart Money Loves About Lilly

"Lilly closed 2025 with back-to-back blowout quarters. Q4 revenue hit $19.29 billion against a consensus estimate of $18.14 billion, while non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 cleared the $6.74 estimate by nearly 12%. The quarter before, revenue beat by 9.5% and EPS beat by over 19%. Prediction markets assigned a 99.9% probability that Lilly would beat Q4 earnings before the report dropped."

"Driving those results: Mounjaro generated $7.4 billion in Q4, up 110% year-over-year, while Zepbound added $4.2 billion, up 123%. The CFO noted that Zepbound holds nearly 70% share of new prescriptions in the branded obesity market, and Mounjaro commands over 55% of new prescriptions in the type 2 diabetes incretin market."

"Institutional ownership stands at 84.7% of shares outstanding. Recent filings show broad accumulation: American Century added 120,905 shares, increasing its stake by 6.6%; Andra AP fonden grew its position by 96.3%; River Wealth Advisors increased its holding by 10.9%; and Keystone Investors initiated a new position. The Wall Street consensus sits at 24 buys versus 1 sell, with an average price target of $1,214."

Eli Lilly stock has declined 2.9% year-to-date to approximately $1,044, yet institutional investors continue accumulating shares during this pullback. The company closed 2025 with exceptional financial performance: Q4 revenue reached $19.29 billion versus $18.14 billion consensus, while non-GAAP EPS of $7.54 exceeded the $6.74 estimate by nearly 12%. Mounjaro generated $7.4 billion in Q4 revenue with 110% year-over-year growth, while Zepbound contributed $4.2 billion with 123% growth. Mounjaro commands over 55% of new prescriptions in the type 2 diabetes market, and Zepbound holds nearly 70% share of new branded obesity prescriptions. Institutional ownership stands at 84.7%, with major investors like American Century and Andra AP fonden significantly increasing positions. Wall Street consensus shows 24 buys versus 1 sell, with an average price target of $1,214. Management guided for $80-83 billion in 2026 revenue with non-GAAP EPS of $33.50-$35.00.

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