"Only 14% of S&P 500 companies are highly sensitive to tariffs."
"Prediction markets assign >65% odds that the Supreme Court rules against the government, and those odds have consistently been against the government, especially following the November Supreme Court oral arguments, Lakos-Bujas told clients."
"The 4.4% real growth rate is much higher than normal and is likely to moderate over the course of the year, but if we can stay above 3% for the entire year it could lead to double-digit returns in the stock market, Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management said in an email seen by Fortune."
S&P 500 closed up 0.55% on stronger U.S. GDP growth and President Trump retracting a tariff threat, pushing the index above 6,900 and within 1% of its all-time high. Gold reached a record high. Futures were down 0.24% premarket and European markets slipped after mixed Asian sessions as traders took profits. Wall Street analysts turned bullish after earlier tariff fears eased. JPMorgan estimates a realized tariff rate near 11% versus expectations of 15% and finds only 14% of S&P 500 companies highly sensitive to tariffs. Prediction markets assign over 65% odds the Supreme Court rules against the government. Q3 GDP was revised to 4.4%, which could support strong market returns if growth stays above 3% for the year.
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