Upstart Holdings Down 6% in After Hours Following Q3 Earnings Miss

"Revenue climbed 71% year over year, and loan originations surged 80% to $2.9B. The company returned to GAAP profitability with net income of $31.81M, compared to a $6.76M loss in Q3 2024. Adjusted EBITDA expanded dramatically to $71.16M from $1.41M, representing a 26% margin. Fee revenue, a key metric for the platform's core lending operations, grew 54% year over year to $259M. Over 90% of loans processed through the platform are now fully automated, reflecting the maturation of Upstart's AI credit decisioning model."

"Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST) delivered its first earnings miss in five consecutive quarters on Tuesday, posting Q3 results that fell short on both the top and bottom lines. The AI-driven lending platform reported adjusted EPS of $0.23 against consensus expectations of $0.43, while revenue of $277.11M missed the $285.22M estimate. Revenue climbed 71% year over year, and loan originations surged 80% to $2.9B."

"Management guided Q4 2025 revenue to approximately $288M with adjusted EBITDA of $63M and a contribution margin of 53%. Full-year 2025 revenue guidance stands at $1.035B. Key Figures Adjusted EPS: $0.23 (vs. $0.43 expected); down 47% from estimateRevenue: $277.11M (vs. $285.22M expected); down 2.8% from estimateGross Profit: $258.54MOperating Income: $23.71MAdjusted EBITDA: $71.16M; up 5,000% year over yearLoan Originations: $2.9B; up 80% year over year"

Upstart reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $277.11M, missing consensus estimates. Revenue increased 71% year over year and loan originations rose 80% to $2.9B. The company returned to GAAP profitability with net income of $31.81M and adjusted EBITDA expanded to $71.16M, representing a 26% margin. Fee revenue grew 54% to $259M and over 90% of loans are fully automated. Operating cash flow turned negative at -$256.28M and free cash flow was -$270.58M, while total liabilities stood at $2.16B. Management guided Q4 revenue of about $288M and full-year 2025 revenue of $1.035B.

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