"JPMorgan rates Ulta Overweight with a $750 price target, lowered from $800, and recommends using the post-earnings selloff as a buying opportunity. The firm's conviction rests on two observations: management's guidance is viewed as conservative, and the company's quarter-to-date comparable sales are tracking well above JPMorgan's own 4% estimate."
"The sell-off itself fits a familiar pattern. When Ulta posted a 14.61% earnings beat in Q2 2026, shares dropped 7.14% on the day, only to recover 12.85% over the following 30 days. Thursday's 4.28% decline on a 12.03% earnings beat looks like a replay of that pattern."
"Morgan Stanley, also Overweight at $700, cites Ulta's Unleashed strategy as reinforcing share gain potential in a competitive beauty market. New brand launches, bold merchandising, and loyalty program depth keep Ulta's moat wide."
Ulta Beauty has experienced significant volatility, declining over 14% in the past week and nearly 20% over the past month, with year-to-date losses exceeding 11%. Despite this weakness, JPMorgan maintains an Overweight rating with a $750 price target, lowered from $800, viewing the post-earnings selloff as a buying opportunity. The firm believes management guidance is overly conservative while quarter-to-date comparable sales are tracking well above their 4% estimate, positioning the stock for meaningful upside surprises. Historical patterns show similar selloffs have been followed by strong recoveries. Key growth drivers include the Unleashed strategy reinforcing market share gains, international expansion through acquisitions like Space NK, and ventures in Mexico and the Middle East, providing durable growth beyond the saturating U.S. store base.
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