Top analyst still thinks we're on the cusp of a new boom for the economy, but investors aren't with him: 'markets remain choppy' | Fortune

""Markets remain choppy," Wilson wrote on Monday, adding "unresolved risks" are weighing heavily on traders' minds. Much of his discussion centered on the fact most companies simply aren't raising guidance much; the outlook remains ratcheted down to where it settled after April's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. He also discussed the midweek swoon on Oct. 16 as midsized banks disclosed much cloudier earnings than their Wall Street counterparts,"

""Morgan Stanley chief equity analyst Mike Wilson has been saying for years the U.S. was in a "rolling recession" when economists were seeing nothing but GDP growth. Since April, he's been declaring a "rolling recovery," with the early stages of an economic boom working its way through various sectors in the economy. His optimism has been borne out by an economy that has surprised to the upside consistently throughout 2025,""

""Wilson maintains the U.S. economy is poised for a "rolling recovery" with an early-cycle rebound playing out over the next six-to-12 months. He wrote on Monday his thesis remains intact despite current volatility and tepid investor sentiment. If trade tensions de-escalate and earnings per share (EPS) revisions stabilize, combined with improved liquidity, that could set the stage for a powerful upswing in equities, he argued. Policy developments, including anticipated trade negotiations at the upcoming APEC summit, a""

U.S. economic data surprised to the upside consistently throughout 2025, suggesting a rolling recovery with early-cycle rebound spreading across sectors. Third-quarter earnings prompted investor caution as companies largely refrained from raising guidance, leaving outlooks at levels set after April's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. Markets remained choppy amid unresolved risks, and midsized bank earnings disclosures on Oct. 16 triggered a midweek swoon. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon described a "cockroach" moment after those disclosures. If trade tensions de-escalate, EPS revisions stabilize, and liquidity improves, equity markets could experience a powerful upswing, aided by upcoming trade negotiations.

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