""rolling recession,""
""We're buyers of dips into year-end.""
""rolling recovery,""
""We sort of invented [it] in 2018,""
A rolling recession began around 2022, characterized by sector-by-sector earnings weakness, negative job growth, and periodic layoff waves. Liberation Day price lows in April 2025 capped that rolling recession. The government sector was the final sector to trough, with DOGE-driven mass layoffs serving as a clear inflection point. Morgan Stanley projects a rolling recovery and recommends buying dips into year-end, maintaining an S&P 500 bull case of 7200 through mid-next year. Morgan Stanley's forecasts had anticipated a downturn in government hiring since 2022, consistent with the rolling recession thesis.
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