Tom Lee's $250K Bitcoin Target Requires Breaking the Four-Year Cycle-Here's Why He Thinks It's Possible

"Tom Lee thinks Bitcoin ( CRYPTO: BTC) could hit $250,000 by the end of 2026-and he's not relying on the usual halving playbook to get there. The Fundstrat co-founder argues the traditional four-year cycle is breaking down, replaced by forces that didn't exist in previous runs: ETF-driven demand, institutional accumulation, and a macro environment turning favorable for risk assets. If Lee is right, Bitcoin isn't following the old pattern anymore."

"In a series of high-profile appearances in early January, Tom Lee reiterated the aggressive Bitcoin forecast he had briefly softened during the October 2025 drawdown. Appearing on CNBC's Squawk Box on January 6 , Lee stated that he doesn't think Bitcoin has peaked yet, reviving his $200K-$250K Bitcoin prediction for the end of 2026. His immediate roadmap anticipates a 35% rally within the first 30 days of the year, pushing Bitcoin past its all-time high of $126,000."

"Lee's conviction stems from the belief that the market is currently in a digestion phase following multiple years of outsized gains. While he acknowledged that Fundstrat was overly optimistic about reaching $200,000 by December 2025, he views the current Bitcoin price action as healthy rebalancing rather than structural reversal. Lee's $250K Bitcoin prediction rests on three pillars: spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to absorb supply, a maturing institutional investor base, and macroeconomic tailwinds that could push Bitcoin into unprecedented territory."

A forecast sets Bitcoin at $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026, expecting a 35% rally within the first 30 days to push price past $126,000. The projection views current price action as a healthy digestion following years of gains, not structural reversal. The price target relies on three pillars: spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbing supply, growing institutional accumulation, and macroeconomic tailwinds favoring risk assets. The projection argues the traditional four-year halving cycle is breaking down as ETF demand and institutional holding patterns reduce new-supply sensitivity.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.