Micron has shifted from cyclical memory weakness to AI infrastructure demand, reporting Q1 FY2026 revenue of $13.643 billion, up 56.6% year over year. The Cloud Memory Business Unit nearly doubled to $5.284 billion with a 66% gross margin. The stock has surged sharply over the past year but remains about 25% below its 52-week high. Recent performance includes insider net selling and sentiment deterioration, while risks include NAND oversupply, heavy capital expenditures, and memory cyclicality. Wall Street shows strong bullish ratings and a consensus target below the current price. A skeptical model projects lower near-term outcomes and notes that HBM economics may not be fully captured. Achieving $1,250 by 2031 would require a 66.4% gain and a forward P/E around 86x, far above the base-case multiple.
"Reaching $1,250 from today's price of $751 would require a gain of 66.4%. With forward EPS of $14.60, a price of $1,250 implies a forward P/E of 86x. Our base case already implies 67x, meaning the bold target requires 19x of additional multiple"
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