The S&P 500 gained about 17% over the prior eight weeks, a move that ranks among the largest such stretches since 1950. Despite a common expectation of mean reversion and a near-term pullback after sharp gains, historical outcomes have often shown continuation rather than exhaustion. A Creative Planning dataset covering January 1950 through May 2026 ranks the recent run as the 20th biggest rolling eight-week gain. The analysis tracks forward performance after prior rallies of similar magnitude across multiple forward windows. The pattern is consistent across those windows, indicating that the typical bearish forecast does not match historical averages.
"According to a Creative Planning analysis posted by Daily Chartbook on X, the 8-week run that just unfolded for the S&P 500 ranks as the 20th biggest 8-week gain for the index since 1950. That is rarefied air across more than seven decades of trading history. However, what tends to follow stretches like this isn't the snapback that you might expect."
"Most investors carry an instinctive expectation that markets revert. After a sharp move higher, the natural assumption is that the trend has borrowed from future returns, leaving the index vulnerable to digesting its gains. The result is uncomfortable for the mean-reversion camp. Stretches like this one have historically been continuation events more often than exhaustion events for the S&P 500."
"Creative Planning's analysis isolates every prior instance of an 8-week rally of this magnitude and tracks the S&P 500 forward across three windows. The pattern is consistent across all three. Over the three months following these large 8-week rallies, the S&P 500 has averaged a ga"
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