The Deal No One Saw Coming: Why Energy Transfer Stock Will Leave Every Other MLP in the Dust

"Energy Transfer ( NYSE: ET) delivered a mixed fourth quarter 2025 performance, posting $25.32 billion in revenue while net income declined to $928 million, down from $1.08 billion year-over-year. The midstream giant reported $0.25 EPS and adjusted EBITDA of $4.18 billion, representing an 8% increase from the prior year quarter. Despite the earnings decline, Energy Transfer achieved multiple operational records."

"The company raised its quarterly distribution to $0.3350 per unit, a 3% increase versus Q4 2024, bringing the annualized payout to $1.34. This marks continued distribution growth supported by strong cash generation. Energy Transfer made a significant strategic announcement, reiterating the suspension of its Lake Charles LNG project to prioritize pipeline infrastructure investments. The company commenced 900 MMcf/d natural gas deliveries to Oracle data centers, capitalizing on surging AI-driven energy demand."

"The company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $17.45 billion to $17.85 billion from a prior range of $17.3 billion to $17.7 billion, reflecting the J-W Power acquisition by USA Compression. Growth capital expenditures are projected at $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion, focused heavily on natural gas network expansion. ET shares had gained 11.8% year-to-date as of February 17, outpacing the broader midstream MLP sector, which posted an 11.3% YTD gain as measured by the Alerian MLP ETF."

Energy Transfer posted Q4 2025 revenue of $25.32 billion and net income of $928 million, down from $1.08 billion year-over-year. EPS was $0.25 and adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $4.18 billion. Crude oil transportation volumes rose 6%, NGL fractionation increased 3%, NGL exports jumped 12% and terminal volumes surged 12% across the 140,000-mile pipeline network in 44 states. The quarterly distribution increased to $0.3350 per unit, annualized $1.34. Management suspended the Lake Charles LNG project to prioritize pipeline investments, began 900 MMcf/d deliveries to Oracle, upsized Desert Southwest to 2.3 Bcf/d. 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $17.45–$17.85 billion with growth capex of $5.0–$5.5 billion focused on natural gas expansion.

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