S&P 500 Other Than AI Infrastructure Is Growing at 0%. Lance Roberts Warns What Happens if the AI Boom Stumbles.

Consensus 2027 EPS estimates show strong gains driven by AI infrastructure and energy, while the remainder of the S&P 500 shows no growth. The earnings improvement is concentrated in a small group of companies, especially the Magnificent 7 and semiconductors, rather than spread across the broader economy. Market performance aligns with these revisions, with the S&P 500 rising modestly, the Nasdaq-100 rising more, and major AI-related names contributing disproportionately. The dependence extends beyond obvious AI firms to suppliers of materials and equipment used in data centers, such as steel fabricators and rebar producers, whose demand is tied to data center construction rather than AI branding.

""Here's the cumulative year-to-date change in consensus 2027 EPS estimates AI infrastructure stocks, 32%. Energy is 19%. S&P 500 is 8%," he said. Then he delivered the punchline: "If you look down at the bottom, the gray line, S&P 500 ex-AI infrastructure and energy, it's 0% growth.""

""An 8% lift in 2027 EPS estimates sounds healthy. Spread evenly across 500 companies, it would be normal corporate progress. But it isn't spread evenly. Most of the earnings improvement is concentrated in the Magnificent 7, with semiconductors just below. The rest of the economy is barely increasing earnings growth at all this year.""

""That maps cleanly onto what prices show. The S&P 500 is up 9% year to date as of last Friday's close. The Nasdaq-100 is up 16.8% over the same stretch. NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) alone has added 15% year to date and 62% over the trailing year. The market-cap-weighted index is doing exactly what its earnings revisions suggest: leaning on a handful of names that print AI infrastructure cash.""

""If I'm a company that builds rebar or makes rebar, I'm sold out right now just trying to sell rebar to people building data centers... But the end buyer is the data center," he said. A steel fabricator does not screen as an AI stock. Its order book tells a different story."

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