"The S&P 500 is currently trading around 6,850 points, near its all-time high, after edging up 0.06% on 12 November 2025 and gaining roughly 12% over the past 12 months. This advance reflects expectations of corporate earnings growth and the Federal Reserve's monetary-easing cycle. However, the underlying picture is more complex: the U.S. macro backdrop remains resilient, valuations have entered elevated territory, and policy risks-particularly the longest government shutdown in history-continue to pose threats."
"Comerica notes that U.S. GDP in 2025 shows significant volatility, with Q2 growth outpacing Q1 and the possibility of further acceleration in Q3. Meanwhile, the ISM Services Index rose to 52.4 in October, its highest since February. October CPI hovered around 3.1% YoY-still above the 2% target but well below overheating levels. On the other hand, although the ADP report showed some improvement, the private sector cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending 25 October."
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 94.6, sharply down from 109.5 a year ago; short-term expectations slipped to 71.5-below the threshold of 80 historically associated with recession risk within 12 months. Overall, the U.S. macro environment is not weak, but it is no longer overheating. Markets are leaning toward a scenario of slower-but not recessionary-growth and continued disinflation sufficient for the Fed to proceed with more rate cuts."
S&P 500 trades around 6,850 points, near its all-time high, with roughly 12% gains over the past year. The advance reflects expectations of corporate earnings growth and Federal Reserve monetary easing. U.S. GDP in 2025 shows volatility, with Q2 outpacing Q1 and potential acceleration in Q3. ISM Services rose to 52.4 in October and CPI sits near 3.1% year-over-year. Private-sector job cuts averaged 11,250 per week recently and consumer confidence fell to 94.6, signaling weaker short-term expectations. Markets favor slower, non-recessionary growth and continued disinflation, supporting further Fed rate cuts. Goldman Sachs raised S&P targets to 6,800 and projects 7,000 in six months and 7,200 in 12 months while forecasting decade-average returns near 6.5%.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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