Sandisk Price Prediction: Has the Rally Gone Too Far?

"After a 3,197% gain over the past year and a 482% year-to-date run, the question is whether fundamentals can keep up with the multiple. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for SanDisk is $1,247.90, implying roughly 9.75% downside from $1,382.72. The recommendation is hold, with high model confidence of 90%."

"The stock has real catalysts: $42 billion in long-term contractual revenue from five new hyperscaler agreements and a structural NAND shortage analysts expect to persist through 2028 could push it well past our model. Susquehanna's $2,000 price target shows how aggressive the bull case can get. Consider our target one datapoint among many."

"The rally has been violent and earnings-driven. Q3 FY26 reported April 30, 2026, delivering EPS of $23.41 versus $14.66 consensus on revenue of $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year. Datacenter revenue alone hit $1.467 billion, up 645%, and gross margin expanded from 22.5% to 78.4%."

"Bulls have a clean thesis. CEO David Goeckeler called Q3 "a fundamental inflection point" with a shift toward multi-year, financially committed customer engagements. Q4 guidance of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion in revenue and $30 to $33 in non-GAAP EPS implies continued acceleration. Mizuho's $1,625 target, Melius Research's $1,350, and Susquehanna's $2,000 all rest on AI memory demand extending through the decade."

SanDisk has experienced a sharp rally, with gains of 3,197% over the past year and 482% year-to-date. A $1,247.90 price target implies about 9.75% downside from $1,382.72, and the recommendation is hold with 90% model confidence. The upside case is supported by $42 billion in long-term contractual revenue from five hyperscaler agreements and expectations of a structural NAND shortage lasting through 2028. Recent results show strong earnings momentum, including Q3 FY26 EPS of $23.41 versus $14.66 consensus and revenue of $5.95 billion. Datacenter revenue rose to $1.467 billion, and gross margin expanded from 22.5% to 78.4%. Bull targets rely on AI memory demand extending through the decade, while the bear case centers on NAND cyclicality and potential downside if demand or margins normalize.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.