"The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF ( NYSEARCA:CHAT) soared just over 45% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500's 17% gain and the Nasdaq-100's 21% advance. The fund's 2026 performance trajectory depends on hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure and the fund's concentrated exposure to companies building that infrastructure. Hyperscaler Capital Spending Is the Engine The biggest macro factor affecting CHAT's performance is capital expenditure by the world's largest cloud providers."
"According to Goldman Sachs Research, consensus estimates for 2026 capex by AI hyperscalers now stand at $527 billion, up from $465 billion at the start of third quarter earnings season. Analysts have consistently underestimated how much Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN), Google ( NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT), and Meta ( NASDAQ:META) are willing to invest in AI infrastructure. CHAT holds meaningful positions in all four hyperscalers. Alphabet is the fund's largest holding at 7.6%, followed by Microsoft at 5.1%, Meta at 4.2%, and Amazon at 3.4%."
The Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) gained just over 45% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. CHAT's 2026 performance depends primarily on capital expenditure by major cloud hyperscalers and the fund's concentrated exposure to companies building AI infrastructure. Goldman Sachs consensus estimates for 2026 hyperscaler capex rose to $527 billion from $465 billion earlier in the quarter. CHAT holds meaningful positions in Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, and the market looks to capex guidance and AI workload commentary in quarterly earnings for signals. The fund also carries heavy semiconductor exposure—led by Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and SK Hynix—introducing concentration risk if spending moderates.
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