"Marathon Petroleum reported adjusted EPS of $4.07 against a $2.71 consensus estimate, a 50.18% beat. Phillips 66 beat by 50.10%, posting $2.47 versus a $1.65 estimate. Valero Energy came in at $3.82 adjusted EPS versus the $3.27 consensus, a 16.82% beat. These aren't one-quarter flukes; all three also beat in Q3 2025."
"Marathon Petroleum's Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA hit $2.00 billion in Q4 2025, up from $559 million in Q4 2024, with margin per barrel at $18.65 and crude utilization at 95%. Phillips 66 achieved record 88% clean product yield with 99% crude utilization, while Valero Energy set a record throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day in Q4."
"For Marathon Petroleum, the analyst consensus sits at eight Hold ratings, six Buys, and four Strong Buys, with an average price target of $202.50-a level the stock has already blown past. Marathon Petroleum trades near $225 today, roughly 10% above that consensus target. Yet Vanguard, Quantbot, and GF Fund Management have all been increasing their Marathon Petroleum stakes, and institutional ownership is at 77.1%."
Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and Valero Energy have surged 31-40% year-to-date through March 2026, significantly outpacing analyst consensus price targets. All three delivered substantial Q4 2025 earnings beats, with Marathon Petroleum beating by 50.18%, Phillips 66 by 50.10%, and Valero by 16.82%. The primary driver is refining margins, with Marathon achieving $18.65 margin per barrel and 95% crude utilization, Phillips 66 reaching record 88% clean product yield, and Valero setting record throughput of 3.1 million barrels per day. Access to discounted Venezuelan heavy crude has widened the spread between feedstock costs and refined product prices. Major institutional investors including Vanguard, Quantbot, and GF Fund Management are increasing positions despite analyst consensus ratings remaining conservative relative to current stock valuations.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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