"Wrong, says Ray Dalio. There is now so much variation in the U.S. economy that it can no longer be looked at "as a whole." The dynamic is growing increasingly complex as the nation is becoming more reliant on its most productive industry: technology. While Wall Street has begun to mutter the world "bubble" in relation to valuations, Dalio warns that more widely, the prospects of the majority of workers are now tied to those in a relatively small sector."
"Dalio's take echoes research released by Moody's earlier this month. According to the analysis, 22 U.S. states are seeing their economies contract-effectively in a recession. Meanwhile, just 16 are seeing economic growth, while 13 are classified as "treading water." That said, the states contributing the most to U.S. GDP-California, Texas, and New York-are all in the clear, pushing the overall growth of the country into the green as a result."
Significant variation now exists across the U.S. economy, preventing a unified national view. Economic performance is increasingly driven by a small, highly productive technology sector concentrated in a few states. Roughly 3 million people, about 1% of the population, lead the AI-driven world, with an adjacent 5–10% tied to them, while the bottom 60% remain largely disconnected from those gains. State-level outcomes diverge sharply: 22 states show contracting economies, 16 show growth, and 13 are treading water, while California, Texas, and New York drive overall national GDP growth.
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