Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2026

"In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player's playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player."

"As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn't indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team's payroll situation."

"While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. It's also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren't generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with "leave it," in such instances, being a non-tender)."

An algorithm projects arbitration salaries by analyzing playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while adjusting for inflation. The system models the entire arbitration class without selecting individual player comparables, though comparable performance influences results. Projections serve as a payroll estimation tool and not as a judgment on individual agent-team negotiations or player value. Official service time figures are used, but the Super Two cutoff has not been established and may add late entrants. Pre-non-tender contracts are often atypical comparables because offers can be skewed by take-it-or-leave-it dynamics. Players with prior-agreement options for 2025 are identified.

Read at MLB Trade Rumors