Palantir reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.406 billion, up 70% year over year, with U.S. commercial revenue up 137%. The Rule of 40 score reached 127%. Despite these results, shares were down 22.99% year to date, with additional weakness over the past month. The decline is attributed to valuation and growth-multiple compression, amplified by a beta of 1.521. Sentiment indicators fell after a May 20 spike, and insider transactions skewed toward net selling. Analyst consensus targets around $183.73, while an internal model estimates $152.01, with a base-case valuation requiring extreme multiple expansion to reach $225 in 2027.
"Q4 2025 revenue of $1.406 billion grew 70% year-over-year, U.S. commercial surged 137%, and the Rule of 40 score hit an absurd 127%. Yet shares are down 22.99% year-to-date. That disconnect raises the key question: Can PLTR reach $225 in 2027, and what has to break right?"
"The problem is valuation. The stock closed 2025 near $183.25 and never made the math work into 2026. Shares are down 10.31% over the past month even though the business accelerates. PLTR carries a beta of 1.521, so when growth multiples compress, this name moves twice as hard."
"Wall Street sees 34% upside. Our Model Says 11%. The sell-side has a consensus target of $183.73, built off 1 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. Our internal model is more cautious, calling for $152.01 (11.06% upside), with an optimistic case of $198.75 and a bear case of $138.52. Confidence on the prediction is 90%."
"Reaching $225 from today's price of $136.88 would require a gain of 64.4%. With forward EPS of $1.11, a price of $225 implies a forward P/E of 203x. Our base case of $152.01 already implies 183x, meaning the bold target requires 20x of additional multiple expansion. That is a stretch. But the case exists."
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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