""Every morning the opening screen on my Bloomberg is what's going on with CDS spreads on Oracle debt," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett told Fortune in October, seeming to speak for a market that was increasingly worried about the bursting of a bubble in artificial intelligence (AI)."
""If people start getting worried about Oracle's ability to pay," Shalett told Fortune, "that's gonna be an early indication to us that people are getting nervous.""
""using a balanced combination of debt and equity financing to maintain a solid investment-grade balance sheet.""
""This transparency on the timing and the amount of Oracle supply is supportive for the broader market," the analysts wrote, given how nervous credit markets and analysts like Lisa Shalett had been through the back half of 2025."
Market observers monitored credit-default-swap spreads on Oracle debt as an early indicator of stress among hyperscalers. Credit default swaps serve to hedge against large debt exposures. Oracle carried comparatively high leverage among hyperscaler companies, making its credit signals especially significant. Lack of clarity around hyperscaler borrowing emerged as a key risk heading into 2026. Oracle announced plans to raise $45–50 billion of gross cash proceeds in 2026 through a balanced mix of debt and equity to preserve investment-grade status. Oracle planned a single bond issuance to meet full-year borrowing needs and priced $25 billion of bonds, providing timing and sizing transparency that supported broader credit markets.
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