"OPEC+, the coalition of major oil producers plus Saudi Arabia and Russia , plans to increase crude output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November. This daily hike will continue for three months, injecting about 45 million additional barrels into the global market amid already weak demand caused by economic slowdowns in the U.S. and Asia. The move, aimed at balancing supply, risks creating an oversupply that could drive down prices."
"With breakeven costs estimated at $50 to $55 per barrel for full-cycle operations including debt service , a $5 price drop could slash free cash flow by 15% to 20%. OXY's net debt stands at around $20.7 billion, resulting in a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 2.5x - higher than peers. This leverage stems from the 2019 acquisition to Anadarko Petroleum, and lower prices would raise interest burdens while limiting capital for dividends or buybacks."
OPEC+ will raise crude output by 500,000 barrels per day starting in November and continue that increase for three months, adding about 45 million barrels amid weak demand in the U.S. and Asia. The output hike risks oversupply and could push Brent crude down by $3 to $7 per barrel, with prices already slipping toward $64. Producers reliant on higher prices face revenue and cash-flow declines. Occidental Petroleum derives about 80% of earnings from U.S. shale, mainly the Permian Basin. Breakeven costs near $50–$55 per barrel and roughly $20.7 billion net debt make Occidental vulnerable to price drops that would compress free cash flow and constrain capital for dividends or buybacks.
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