"RTX delivered strong sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow in 2025, enabled by our continued focus on operational performance and execution. Shares are trading around $207 as of March 11, 2026, while Q4 2025 results were strong: adjusted EPS of $1.55 beat estimates of $1.47, revenue of $24.24 billion came in 7.1% above expectations, and free cash flow surged 442% year over year to $3.2 billion."
"The pattern from prior US conflicts: the initial spike prices in the headlines. The durable re-rating happens 6 to 18 months later, when the replenishment contracts come through and show up in revenue. RTX manufactures both Tomahawk and PAC-3 munitions, positioning it to benefit from sustained defense spending cycles."
RTX Corp holds a record $268 billion backlog, up 23% year-over-year, with Q4 2025 results exceeding expectations: adjusted EPS of $1.55 beat estimates, revenue of $24.24 billion surpassed forecasts by 7.1%, and free cash flow surged 442% to $3.2 billion. However, converting this backlog into cash faces complications from an engine crisis at Pratt & Whitney that has forced Airbus to cut production targets. Reddit investors show bullish sentiment (63-78 range) focused on munitions replenishment rather than backlog conversion. The investment thesis centers on real-time munitions consumption from conflicts, with historical patterns suggesting durable re-rating occurs 6-18 months after initial spending spikes when replenishment contracts materialize in revenue.
#defense-contractor-backlog #pratt--whitney-engine-crisis #munitions-replenishment-cycle #execution-risk #defense-spending
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