"Delta's FY2026 EPS guidance of $6.50 to $7.50 and United's FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $12.00 to $14.00 were both built on the assumption that the favorable fuel environment from 2025 continues. In 2025, Delta's fuel expense fell 7% year-over-year, with quarterly fuel prices as low as $2.25 per gallon. United saw similar relief, with Q2 2025 fuel at $2.34 per gallon, down over 15% year-over-year."
"At $100 oil, those gallon prices would look nothing like 2025 - and neither would the earnings. Both companies explicitly flagged fuel price volatility as a top risk."
"WTI crude currently sits at $71.13 per barrel as of March 2, 2026, up 10.3% in just one month from $64.50 in early February. The 12-month low was $55.44 in December 2025. That's a $15+ recovery in under three months. Oil would need to rise another $28.87 to reach $100 - significant, but the trajectory is pointed in that direction."
Delta Air Lines and United Airlines issued 2026 earnings guidance assuming favorable fuel conditions from 2025 would persist, but this assumption faces severe risk if WTI crude climbs to $100 per barrel. Delta's FY2026 EPS guidance of $6.50-$7.50 and United's adjusted EPS guidance of $12.00-$14.00 were predicated on low fuel costs, with 2025 fuel expenses falling 7-15% year-over-year at prices around $2.25-$2.34 per gallon. Both airlines explicitly identified fuel price volatility as a top risk. Stock prices already reflect market uncertainty, with DAL down 15% year-to-date and UAL down 17%. WTI crude has risen from $64.50 in early February to $71.13 in early March 2026, demonstrating upward momentum that could reach $100 within 12 months if geopolitical shocks or supply disruptions occur.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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