HVAC Revenues Are Contracting. We Compared Three Manufacturers to Find the Winner.
Briefly

HVAC Revenues Are Contracting. We Compared Three Manufacturers to Find the Winner.
"The HVAC industry is facing a painful reality check. After years of robust growth driven by pandemic-era construction booms and infrastructure spending, commercial heating and cooling manufacturers are watching revenues contract and margins compress. The question for investors: which companies are positioned to weather it and emerge stronger when demand returns. We compared three HVAC manufacturers, AAON (NASDAQ:AAON), Carrier Global (), and Lennox International (), to see who's best positioned for the downturn and eventual recovery."
"AAON manufactures energy-efficient HVAC systems for commercial and industrial buildings. With a $6.09 billion market cap, they're the smallest of the three but have historically commanded premium valuations for their focus on custom solutions and indoor air quality technology. Carrier Global is the industry giant with a $45.27 billion market cap and $22.06 billion in trailing revenue. They serve residential, commercial, and industrial customers globally with a broad portfolio of HVAC and refrigeration products."
Commercial HVAC demand has softened after pandemic-era construction and infrastructure booms, causing revenue contractions and margin compression across major manufacturers. AAON, Carrier Global, and Lennox vary by scale: AAON ($6.09B market cap) focuses on custom, energy-efficient systems; Carrier ($45.27B) is a diversified global giant; Lennox ($17.35B) targets premium residential and commercial systems. Q3 2025 results show Carrier revenue down 6.8% and Lennox down 4.8%, while AAON reported 16.8% revenue growth but suffered a 68.6% year-over-year net income drop and sharply compressed margins. Lennox posts the strongest operating and profit margins, signaling pricing power and efficiency.
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