Energy Stocks Are Secretly Better Than Treasuries. Here's Why Bob Brackett Is Loading Up on Exxon and Chevron.

Energy income investors should compare commodity-company yields to TIPS rather than to nominal government yields because TIPS are inflation protected. Exxon’s dividend yield is higher than the 10-year TIPS real yield, and oil value can rise if the dollar devalues. The dividend record during the 2020 demand collapse shows Exxon and Chevron maintained quarterly payouts while some European majors cut dividends. Capital returns have provided additional support through large buyback programs and long dividend growth streaks. Exxon and Chevron reported stronger underlying earnings and results versus expectations, reinforcing the income case for energy equities.

""Don't compare the yields you get from a commodity company to government yields. Compare them to TIPS. These are inflation protected," Brackett said. "My 3% dividend from Exxon, if the dollar devalues, the barrel of oil gets more valuable and they'll sustain that.""

"The math matters right now. The 10-year TIPS real yield sits at 2.13%, while Exxon's dividend yield is 2.56% and Chevron's is 3.62%. Both come with growing buybacks and a barrel of oil that, at $101 WTI, sits roughly 40% above year-ago levels."

"Brackett's central evidence is what happened when demand cratered. Exxon Mobil ( NYSE:XOM | XOM Price Prediction) held its quarterly payout at $0.87 throughout 2020. Chevron ( NYSE:CVX) maintained $1.29 every quarter. ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP) paid $0.42 to $0.43 through the worst of the pandemic. European majors Shell, BP, and Total cut. Demand fell by 20 million barrels per day, and the American majors did not flinch."

"Exxon plans $20 billion in 2026 buybacks, with $4.9 billion already repurchased in Q1, and just hiked the dividend for the 43rd consecutive year. Chevron has returned more than $5 billion to shareholders for 16 straight quarters and delivered $27.1 billion in total returns during 2025. Underlying Q1 2026 earnings at Exxon rose to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion, while Chevron beat consensus EPS, reporting 45.56% at $1.41 versus $0.97 ( 8-K filing)."

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