"Wells Fargo is taking a different view. After meeting with Alcoa's CFO, the firm raised its price target to $68 from $64, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. At the current price of $65.01, that target represents roughly 4.59% upside. The $68 target sits well above the Street's $48.25 consensus, implying Wells Fargo sees structural value the broader analyst community is missing."
"Full-year 2025 free cash flow surged 1,250% year-over-year to $567 million, while net income reached $1.170 billion, up 1,850% year-over-year. In Q4 alone, the company had free cash flow of $294 million. This cash compounding funds dividends, buybacks and reinvestment without reliance on debt."
"The upgrade follows a CFO conversation that left Wells Fargo more comfortable with Alcoa's limited energy cost risk in the Middle East. Natural gas, a key input for aluminum smelting, spiked to $7.72 per million BTU in January 2026 before retreating to $3.62 in February, reducing near-term margin pressure."
Alcoa Corp. has delivered exceptional performance with shares up 96% over the past year and 15% year-to-date, recently reaching a 52-week high of $68.40. While most Wall Street brokerages maintain cautious "Hold" ratings with an average price target of $48.25, Wells Fargo raised its target to $68 after meeting with Alcoa's CFO, citing comfort with the company's limited energy cost exposure in the Middle East. Alcoa's financial strength is evident through 1,250% year-over-year free cash flow growth to $567 million and 1,850% net income growth to $1.170 billion in 2025. The company is monetizing strategic assets by selling closed smelting sites to data center developers, with the first sale expected by June 2026.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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