Who is going to hit 20 home runs for the Red Sox?

"Discounting the war years, we have to go all the way back to 1935 - the year before Jimmie Foxx joined the team - to find a season in which no Red Sox player hit at least 20 homers. Suffice it to say, the game was very, very different 91 years ago. Only 14 players across the entire sport hit 20 or more homers."

"This isn't to say that the FanGraphs' projections are "wrong." Rather, this is an acknowledgment that projections are not predictions. Projections are conservative by nature, favoring mean outcomes rather than outlier outcomes because, well, outlier outcomes are outliers for a reason. The projections also don't take into account the real-world human factors that influence statistical outcomes."

The Boston Red Sox have maintained a remarkable streak of having at least one player hit 20 or more home runs in every season since 1935, excluding the World War II years when many players served overseas. To find the last season without a 20-homer hitter, one must go back 91 years to 1935, before Jimmie Foxx joined the team. In contrast, 1935 saw only 14 players across all of baseball hit 20 or more homers. While FanGraphs currently projects no Red Sox player will reach 20 homers in 2026—making them the only MLB team with this distinction—the streak will likely continue. Projections differ from predictions; they favor conservative, mean outcomes rather than outlier outcomes and don't account for real-world human factors influencing statistical performance.

Read at Over the Monster