The recent trade of Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants left baseball executives puzzled, raising questions about the use of analytic models in player valuation. Despite Devers' impressive statistics since his contract extension—averaging 30 home runs and 92 RBIs—the trade was branded as 'underwater' by analysts. The move signals a shift in how contracts for superstar players are evaluated, sparking controversy over whether performance metrics accurately reflect a player's value in light of team dynamics and contractual obligations.
The Red Sox got out from a deal every model in baseball has as underwater.
When it comes to superstars, you can take your 'model' and shove it.
Over the first two seasons since signing the extension, Devers averaged 30 home runs, 92 RBI, and 89 runs scored.
This deal...seemed to be a fair market value extension for Devers just 2.5 years ago.
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