"The top seven teams in the American League are separated by a total of six games. There will not even be a 95-win team this year in the AL. The upside of having condensed standings on this side of the bracket is that truly any team has a shot to make it to the World Series. The downside is that not a single team is even close to being locked into a specific seed,"
"For the sake of probabilities, which we learned this week are fake, let's rule out a couple of things. The Red Sox probably aren't going to win the division, needing to pass two teams that are three games ahead, in Toronto and the Yankees. That almost certainly rules out the Astros as an opponent in the Wild Card series. Let's also rule out the Mariners falling out of a bye, as they also have a three-game cushion from doing so."
The Red Sox are 87-71 with a Magic Number of 1 after two wins in Toronto. The American League’s top seven teams are separated by six games, and no AL team will reach 95 wins, creating highly compressed standings and uncertain seeds. The Red Sox are unlikely to win the division, making the Astros an improbable Wild Card opponent, while the Mariners are unlikely to lose their bye. The most likely Wild Card opponents are the Toronto Blue Jays (90-68) or Cleveland Guardians (86-72). Road teams have gone 8-4 in Wild Card series from 2022–2024, with five- and six-seeds each winning four of six series.
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