"As a general rule of thumb, when looking at a debut, you can probably expect increased velocity and diminished command due to adrenaline. First game jitters, if you will. That seemed to be the case on Friday, as Tolle was throwing as hard as he ever has early in the game, and many of his missed spots came on the arm side, often a sign of overthrowing the ball."
"His fastball was as advertised. Actually, it might have been even better than advertised. As a matter of fact, I was one of the people who advertised his fastball earlier this season. In the minor leagues, it averaged 95 mph with 14 inches of vertical brea, and a 1.1 height-adjusted vertical approach angle (HAVAA). On Friday, it averaged 96 mph with 17 inches of vertical break and a 1.4 HAVAA."
"FanGraphs gave it a 143 stuff+. Among qualified pitchers, the best four-seam fastball by Stuff+ is Tarik Skubal's at 128. Again, Tolle won't throw as hard every time out, which will cause the vertical movement to come down some. The 1.4 HAVAA is among the elite, especially from the left side. If it lands even around 1.2, it'll be a great pitch."
Payton Tolle struck out eight Pirates over 5.1 innings, allowing three hits and two walks and ultimately being charged with two runs after leaving the game. Debut adrenaline produced increased velocity and diminished command, with many missed spots on the arm side consistent with overthrowing. The four-seam fastball averaged 96 mph with 17 inches of vertical break and a 1.4 HAVAA in the outing, compared with 95 mph, 14 inches and 1.1 HAVAA in the minors. The pitch featured 7.5 feet of extension, the most among left-handers this year. FanGraphs assigned a 143 Stuff+ to the fastball, suggesting elite upside even if metrics regress.
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