"In 2025, 26.5% of the pitches Duran saw were over the heart of the plate. He swung at 73.3% of those pitches in 2024, but only 68.2% in 2025. This dropoff, while seemingly small, indicated he was swinging at worse pitches overall."
"When you let pitches over the heart of the plate go, they're called strikes. When you're behind in the count, you don't see as many good pitches to hit, unless the pitcher makes a mistake."
"Duran has had a .453 weighted on-base average when he's ahead in the count. Behind in the count, that number is .220, indicating a significant drop in performance."
"Duran is also a good fastball hitter - he posted a .368 wOBA against fastballs in 2025, compared to a .265 against breaking balls."
In 2025, Jarren Duran's performance declined significantly, with a 3.9 fWAR output and a .050 decrease in slugging percentage. He recorded 13 fewer extra-base hits and an increased strikeout rate. Defensively, his defensive runs saved dropped from 23 to 9, and his outs above average fell from 10 to -2. Although his bat speed remained elite, he swung at fewer pitches over the heart of the plate, leading to a lower weighted on-base average when behind in the count. Duran's ability to hit fastballs was notably better than breaking balls.
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