"Prospects look great during these cold, snowy winter months until ... well, nobody wants to hear that most prospects will disappoint. We only want to hear the good stuff! Remember Boston Red Sox 2B Kristian Campbell, baseball's "it" selection from last season? He had a great spring, signed a long-term contract and, after hitting .301 with a .902 OPS for Boston in April, he hit .134 with a .355 OPS in May and spent much of the season in the minors."
"Meanwhile, Washington Nationals OF Dylan Crews and Chicago Cubs IF Matt Shaw were top-200 selections in ESPN ADP, and they hit .208 and .226 for the season, respectively. Hitting is hard. Relying on prospects can be dangerous. Few had Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz and Atlanta Braves C Drake Baldwin winning their respective league's Rookie of the Year awards. To be officially defined as a prospect, one must not have exhausted their MLB rookie eligibility yet (130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, 45 days on active roster)."
Fantasy baseball managers frequently target top prospects for draft-day upside, but many prospects fail to replicate minor-league success in the majors. Examples include Kristian Campbell, who produced strong early numbers before a steep decline and demotion, and top-200 ADP picks Dylan Crews and Matt Shaw, who hit .208 and .226. A minority of prospects, such as Nick Kurtz and Drake Baldwin, win Rookie of the Year honors. A player qualifies as a prospect until exceeding 130 MLB at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active roster, making prospect investment inherently risky.
Read at ESPN.com
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