"Ever since Donald Trump declared that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, much of the world has been waiting to see whether he could force Moscow and Kyiv into a settlement. Millions of views and scrolls, miles of news feeds and mountains of forecasts have been burned on that question. Trump fed this expectation by insisting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was running out of options and would eventually have to accept his deal. In reality, the opposite is true."
"Any sanctions harsh enough to damage Russia would also hit the wider Western economy, and there is not a single leader in the West willing to saw off the branch they are sitting on. Armed intervention is even more implausible. From the first days of the full-scale invasion, NATO decided to support Ukraine with weapons and training while avoiding steps that could trigger a direct NATO-Russia war."
Shrinking Western support, collapsing morale and a deep demographic decline are pushing Ukraine toward a critical point. The government's only chance is a complete reorganisation of its political and military system. External efforts to force a settlement lack leverage over Moscow, and sanctions severe enough to harm Russia would also damage Western economies. NATO has limited its response to weapons and training to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, effectively leaving Ukraine to fight largely on its own. Vladimir Putin aims to buy time to regroup and to outlast Ukraine and its allies. The United States softened a peace framework, but the Kremlin still demands major territorial concessions and Ukrainian withdrawals.
Read at www.aljazeera.com
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