Race starts in Italy with a stage-two mountain finish in Limone Piemonte and features steep ramps and decisive Pyrenean climbs that will test GC contenders. Jonas Vingegaard holds advantages in climbing and time trials and can handle tough finishes, boosted by two Tour wins and battles with Tadej Pogačar, yet absence of Pogačar does not guarantee victory. Mountain stages and the Bola del Mundo finale should determine overall standings across week two and week three. The Vuelta's unpredictability often produces surprise challengers and escape-driven upsets, exemplified by Ben O'Connor, while team rivalries, fatigue, transfers, and career pressures influence outcomes.
The new, more explosive Jonas will be well suited to the steep ramps that the final Grand Tour of the season always serves up, but the mountain stages in the Pyrenees will reveal any cracks in his and everyone else's GC armoury. The battle for overall victory will then play out in week two and week three, hopefully lasting all the way until stage 20 atop Bola del Mundo near Madrid.
As far as individual capabilities are concerned, the Dane has an edge on his direct Vuelta rivals when it comes to climbing and time trialling. He might even outsprint the other leaders if it comes down to a tough finish. His two Tour de France victories and his fights with Tadej Pogačar put Vingegaard a level above everyone, but the absence of Pogačar will not make victory and the next three weeks of racing a formality. It won't be for a number of reasons.
Something unexpected always happens at the Vuelta, trust me, I know from first-hand experience. The fuss about GC Kuss isn't that long ago, and it could happen again, perhaps this time at UAE. A surprise challenger usually emerges at the Vuelta, as best illustrated by the performances of Ben O'Connor in 2024. The Australian has the knack of sneaking into an escape that shakes up the overall standings. He could do it again this year.
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