"As an initial stab, you might have guessed that since adopting the power-oriented offensive approach in 2019, the Braves have not been much for accumulating stolen bases. That's fairly intuitive, but unfortunately, it gets somewhat upended by reality. The Braves finished just inside the top ten in team stolen bases in 2018, and then again in 2019. 2020 and 2021 were low-steal years,"
"Over the last two seasons, though, they've reverted to essentially a no-steal offense. The above only figures for raw counts, rather than adjusting for opportunity and the like. That said, the pattern basically holds even if you use a more sophisticated accounting of stolen base value - basically, from 2018-onward, the Braves have alternated two-year stretches of "yes we steal a lot of bases" and "we have little interest in stealing bases.""
Since adopting a power-first approach in 2019, Atlanta's stolen-base totals have swung rather than trended steadily down. The team ranked inside the top ten in steals in 2018, 2019, and 2023, was average in 2022, and had low totals in 2020–2021 and the most recent two seasons. The alternating pattern remains after adjusting for opportunity and stolen-base value, showing recurring two-year stretches of high and low stealing. Future totals hinge on Ronald Acuña Jr.'s health and willingness to run and on Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies reaching base. Hiring Antoan Richardson could signal a move toward emulating the 2025 Mets' high-success steal model despite average footspeed.
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