"We've all been there before. We've sat and watched as a Braves player hits a ball directly on the screws only for it to go straight into a defender's glove. There's also the infamous cases of deep fly balls that all look destined for the seats upon contact only for the outfielder to either scamper under it to make the catch or it just dies at the warning track thanks to the divine intervention of nature."
"If you're like me, you also make a beeline for Baseball Savant just to see whether or not the eye test matches up with the sabermetrics. If you're also like me, this is when you either see a low xBA and shrug your shoulders or you see a high one and proceed to attempt to rip out your hair."
"It sure just seems like a routine fly ball to center (and to be fair, that's what all these robberies will look like in the box score where it ultimately counts) but as the Pirates' commentary crew pointed out, Oneil Cruz "made it look easy" by getting a very good job on a ball that was hit absolutely on the nose by Nick Allen. It was just that type of season at the plate for Nick Allen, y'all."
Statcast xBA identified ten plays in 2025 where Atlanta Braves well-hit balls were converted into outs by exceptional defensive plays. Fans compare the eye test to Baseball Savant xBA to reconcile perceived outcomes with sabermetrics and to understand when quality contact did not result in hits. Several Braves hitters, most notably Nick Allen, suffered multiple hard-hit outs that the metrics labeled high-probability hits. Outfielders such as Oneil Cruz and Corbin Carroll made difficult catches that robbed the Braves, and a Sean Murphy fly ball struck perfectly was taken away, affecting potential early scoring.
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