"Do y'all remember the time when Baseball Prospectus would drop their annual PECOTA projections and there would be gnashing of teeth and rending of garments on the Braves Country corner of the internet? That was because for years, if there was any team that represented the whole "PECOTA hates your team" belief, it was the Braves because they'd routinely come in somewhat underrated compared to how the fanbase or even other projection models felt about the team."
"Well, those days appear to be over because PECOTA has actually been quite fond of the Braves in recent seasons. Baseball Prospectus has just released their annual PECOTA projections for the 2026 season (and I highly recommend that y'all go over there and subscribe so you can get even more high-quality baseball analysis and data concerning these projections) and just like FanGraphs, PECOTA figures that the Braves are going to bounce back in 2026."
"As of right now, PECOTA has the Braves winning 92 games and losing 70 - it's actually 69.8 but I'm rounding up, as usual. They're currently projected to win the division with a 57 percent shot at doing that and they've also been given a 34 percent shot at making the Wild Card, which has sent them up to a 90 percent shot of making the Postseason."
PECOTA projects the Atlanta Braves to finish 92-70 in 2026, rounded up from 69.8 losses. The model assigns a 57 percent chance to win the NL East and a 34 percent chance to secure a Wild Card, totaling a 90 percent probability of reaching the postseason. PECOTA further gives the Braves a 72 percent chance to advance to the Divisional Round and a nine percent probability of winning the World Series, ranking second in the National League behind the Dodgers. Recent PECOTA outputs show stronger support for the Braves compared with past seasons.
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