"How are they doing it? Well, it's a mix of good baseball and stuff that just happens to be working out in their favor. The "good baseball" part involves the highest xwOBA in baseball since the streak began, at .388. But they also have the fourth-biggest xwOBA overperformance in that span. That's helped the team escape a bottom-ten xwOBA underperformance for the whole season. Too little, too late, but it is what it is."
"Pitching-wise, during the streak, the Braves have the league's second-lowest ERA- and FIP-, and the fourth-lowest xFIP-. In numerical terms: 64/74/82. On the season, those ranks are 19th, 23rd, and 12th. In this span, they have the fourth-lowest HR/FB; on the season, it's still sixth-highest. That alone has probably made this streak a streak, rather than just a less-noticeable, completely meaningless good run to end the season."
"All in all, it's a bit daft. Oh, sure, xwOBA underperformance and HR/FB will completely tank the season - the Braves had essentially the largest xwOBA underperformance in May and June, and horrible HR/FB issues in April, June, and July - but sure, have a ten-game winning streak where the worm turns for you. (Note that neither xwOBA gaps nor HR/FB stuff have actually been favorable to the Braves in any month, neutral at best.)"
The Braves have won ten consecutive games by combining the highest xwOBA in baseball during the streak (.388) with an unusually large xwOBA overperformance. Strong pitching also contributed: second-lowest ERA- and FIP- and fourth-lowest xFIP- during the run. The run includes a fourth-lowest HR/FB rate in the span, despite a season that still ranks sixth-highest in HR/FB. Season-long metrics show bottom-ten xwOBA underperformance and poor earlier-month HR/FB rates, meaning the streak is driven partly by favorable variance rather than sustainable season-level improvement. The Braves' improved run prevented the season's underlying metrics from appearing as dire over the ten-game stretch.
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