"Injuries were the primary culprit, though there were certainly some underperformances as well. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missed time, as they did in 2024, and when they played they were still working their way back into form. Getting those stars and others, such as Austin Riley and Matt Olson, back to full capacity and/or productivity is the Braves' best hope for a quick bounce-back. The projections think they have a good chance of getting that."
"My simulations have the Braves winning 11 more games than their baseline win estimate of 80. In other words, their average projection qualifies them as a breakout team, the only team for which that is the case."
Injuries were the primary reason for the Braves' decline, supplemented by some underperformances. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missed time and remained in the process of returning to form when they played. Austin Riley and Matt Olson also need to regain full capacity and productivity. Restoring these players offers the most direct path to a quick rebound. Projections indicate a solid chance of recovery. Simulations show an average improvement of 11 wins over the baseline estimate of 80, qualifying the Braves as the lone projected breakout team.
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