"You could spend hours digging deep into a player's profile and identifying reasons why they have good fortune or bad fortune, but in this article, we are going to look at a high-level view of three players. There are few areas you can look right off the bat on to help determine if a player has had bad fortune at the plate. First you can look at a player's weighted on base average (wOBA) versus their expected wOBA (xwOBA)."
"Another number to look at is a player's batting average of balls in play (BABIP). The key here is to look at a player's history, not compare them to other players across the league. For example, if a player has a five-year career and they average a BABIP of .302, but last year they had a .260, odds are it was poor luck in terms of having balls drop for hits."
Atlanta Braves offensive performance declined last season due to injuries, a suspension, and player underperformance. Several hitters experienced negative variance that is distinguishable from true skill decline by using underlying metrics. Comparing weighted on base average (wOBA) to expected wOBA (xwOBA) can reveal players with undervalued outcomes, while batting average on balls in play (BABIP) compared to a player's career norm can indicate bad luck. Large xwOBA>wOBA gaps and unusually low BABIPs relative to history suggest candidates for positive regression. These metrics function as initial screening tools to identify players worth deeper analytical review.
Read at Battery Power
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