The upcoming Bluebird Banter Top 40 prospect list emphasizes a probabilistic approach to prospect evaluation, focusing on the varying outcomes rather than single grades. Co-authored by Matt W and Tom M, the list aims to provide insight into each player's potential value in Major League Baseball, arguing that ordinal rankings can oversimplify the complexity of prospect evaluations. The report indicates that outside the top 100 prospects, the median expected MLB value is often zero, highlighting the risks involved. By using estimated probability distributions, the analysis seeks to clarify the relative risks and upsides for each prospect more accurately than traditional grading systems.
A major difference between the analysis here compared what is generally found elsewhere is a probabilistic focus on the distribution of outcomes rather than a single grade or expectation.
Especially toward the backend, the difference between a few spots on a prospect list is negligible and more in the eye of the beholder.
Realistically, outside the top 100, the median expected MLB value for a prospect is zero, reflecting a significant risk in prospect evaluations.
To provide critical context on relative risks, upsides, and realistic outlooks for major league value, we've produced estimated probability distributions for each prospect.
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