Why 'Sinners' should win best picture (but probably won't) and more Oscar predictions

"You have to remember that best picture is chosen by ranked choice voting: a film needs to get over 50% of voters to win, and if that criteria is not met, they eliminate the lowest ranked film and redistribute those votes to the next choices until they hit that 50% mark. In that environment, it's not enough for there to be a small base of very vocal supporters. You need everyone to kind of like your movie."

"I suspect that there are voters—let's call them old school, very traditional Academy voters—who will not vibe with the horror elements of Sinners. And there's a more meta reason here: At its heart, One Battle is satirizing right wing extremism. It's poking much gentler fun at left wing idealism and extremism. That is the kind of thing that a certain kind of Academy voter will vote for, and feel very good about themselves for doing it."

The 2026 Oscar race features two frontrunners for Best Picture: Sinners, a horror film starring Michael B. Jordan, and One Battle After Another, a satirical film critiquing right-wing extremism. While Sinners should win based on merit, One Battle After Another is predicted to take the prize. The Academy uses ranked choice voting, requiring films to secure over 50% of votes to win. This system favors films with broad appeal rather than niche support. Traditional Academy voters tend to dismiss genre films like horror and gravitate toward satirical political content, viewing such votes as meaningful political statements. One Battle After Another aligns with these voter preferences, making it the likely winner despite Sinners' artistic merit.

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