"What are the odds that Elon Musk eventually ends up with $1 trillion worth of Tesla shares, assuming his new pay package is approved? We asked the AI chatbots to analyze his chances. Tesla's proposed compensation package for its CEO hinges on several ambitious milestones for the full payout: The company reaching an $8.5 trillion market cap, $400 billion adjusted EBITDA, and extensive deployments of robotaxis, full self-driving (FSD) subscriptions, AI Optimus robots, and EV sales."
"Grok was the most confident in Musk Of the three chatbots, Grok from xAI - Musk's AI company - was most optimistic about Musk's odds. Grok said there was a 70% chance that Tesla reached the vehicle delivery threshold, and a 35% chance that it reached the necessary number of FSD subscribers. For the Optimus robot sales and robotaxi milestones, it estimated 80% and 50% odds, respectively."
Tesla's CEO compensation package would award Elon Musk $1 trillion in shares if Tesla reaches an $8.5 trillion market capitalization, $400 billion adjusted EBITDA, and large-scale deployments of robotaxis, FSD subscriptions, AI Optimus robots, and EV sales. Shareholder approval is required for the package to become official. Musk previously met 12 milestones under his prior package in 2023. AI chatbots offered differing probability estimates: Grok was most optimistic and assigned various odds to individual milestones (70% vehicle delivery threshold, 35% FSD subscribers, 80% Optimus sales, 50% robotaxis, 30% EBITDA, 25% market cap), while Gemini judged the overall chance effectively zero. Meeting all targets is highly uncertain.
Read at Business Insider
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