"Macro Research Board Partners, an economic research platform, published a report in January that contradictedthe popular belief that AI is the main driver of GDP and that the "narrowly concentrated" and "extremely vulnerable" growth would tank the entire economy once it falters. "In short, without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also be fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent," wrote economic strategist Prajakta Bhide, who authored the report."
""Consumers continue to be the backbone of the economy," Bhide told Business Insider. "Aggregate income growth is lower than it used to be, and so is job growth, which affected consumer sentiments. But there is a divide between what consumers say they feel and whatthey say that they're going to do versus what they actually go and do.""
Personal consumption remained the main pillar of U.S. GDP growth in 2025. Consumer spending stayed robust despite slower aggregate income and job growth. AI investment contributed as a secondary driver, mostly through software spending, while data-center contributions were negligible. Much high-tech AI equipment was imported, reducing AI's net contribution to GDP. Without an AI boom there would have been less GDP growth but also fewer imports, leaving overall real growth still decent. A negative shock to AI optimism could pose a downside risk, and strong consumption does not eliminate recession risk.
Read at Business Insider
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